Campaign 2008
The Democratic Primary: Time for Buyer’s Remorse?
From the Democrat perspective, the 2008 Presidential Election seemed strong proof for the theories of Leibniz — early on the 2008 political climate really did seem the “best of all possible worlds.” The Republican brand was shot, the war was unpopular, the economy was tanking, and George Bush was an enormous millstone for Republicans. Moreover, as one commentator observed, the only disagreement among Dems was which primary candidate was super-great and which one merely great.
Several grueling months later, things look a lot less Panglossian. In fact, Democrats may have stumbled into the worst of all possible worlds. Not only did the Republicans inadvertently nominate their most electable candidate, but the Democratic primary has devolved into a bellum omnium contra omnes of race and gender.
The past few months raised the negatives of both candidates and bitterly divided the party. However, Dems may have committed an even more fatal error — nominating the less electable candidate but not realizing their mistake until it was too late to reverse it. Unless Hillary pulls off a miracle, she’s going to lose the popular vote. She’s already certain to lose the pledged delegate count. If party bigwigs then “steal” the nomination from Obama, the bonfire of identity politics we’ve seen thus far will flare into a towering disco inferno. Burn, Dhimmis, Burn.
Looking at recent polling and history, Obama really is going to have problems in the general election. Part of his appeal was his electability — he had low negatives and could “paint the map purple.” Instead, we’re finding that Hillary has more Swing State appeal. Obama’s 25-point lead in NC has dropped to single digits largely due to racial polarization. Scratch off the only state in the South where he seemed competitive (except perhaps Virginia.) Worse, he can’t close the deal with working-class whites in PA, OH, IN or FL — the most swingin’ of the Swing States.
Recent polling looks bad for Obama. Hillary does much better against McCain both nationally and in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Obviously, this has been a bad week, what with Rev. Wright melting down on national television. But Obama had trouble with these states well beforehand. He hasn’t won a big-state primary since Feb 19th, and that was in Wisconsin.
If I were a superdelegate, these would be major red flags for me.
HT: Ace of Spades for the pic!
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As much as I think us Conservatives like to believe Obama’s electability is down due to the Wright problem, I know that Obama’s base is unmoved.
Sure, Obama may have lost a few on fence sitters, but the Wright controvery has only served to give Republicans a high horse to sit on.
I hope I don’t sound like I’m playing devils advocate here, I think it’s an honest statement.
We are getting too comfortable in the idea that Obama has been hurt.
Hey Joe-
“As much as I think us Conservatives like to believe Obama’s electability is down due to the Wright problem, I know that Obama’s base is unmoved.”
I think we could be in danger of overstating the severity of his wounds, but he is wounded. You’re right that his “base” is unmoved, but I think you’re missing the middle. He’s wounded somewhat in the primary, but it’s in the general that I think he’s damaged the most. It’s among the classic swing voters — working class whites — that he’s taken the biggest hit.
I think the comical Reverend is a distraction from the real issues. Obama’s a socialist. Anyway, I doubt McCain will use this in the general election, look at NC. In the mean time, the super delegates are in a bit of a quandry. It will be interesting to watch how this all plays out.
Mrs. B-
I like your blog! I’ll link up that Gordo Brown post soon. Tony Blair was imperfect, but Brown is awful.
I don’t think Wright is a distraction at all — cultural issues are just as valid and important as economic ones. And for many potential voters, they resonate more strongly.
I definitely agree on Obama’s leftist ideology, however.
I’m actually going to blog on his Marxian orientation tonight, I think.
Thank you. I totally understand about Wright, it also goes to Obama’s judgment. I just wish there would be a little more attention focused on his extreme ideology. He’s portrayed as the great unifier, when in actuality, he only wants everyone else to sign on to his left wing agenda. I read the Communist Manifesto, then Obama’s website. There are a lot of parallels there.
Mrs. B-
I’ve done my part to correct the imbalance. Check out the latest post if you get a sec.
Thanks for commenting, btw. I really do enjoy your blog a lot. Hope to see more of you!
Thanks again! I just found your blog tonight. I read your post about Obama/Marxism. I must have clicked right after it was posted.
I don’t get much time for this, but the kids are asleep and the Phillies already won, so I thought I’d see what everyone else has to say while I keep an eye on what the Mets are doing. (Even though I live in NY, I grew up in PA).
I’ll put a link to your blog on my site.
B-
“I’ll put a link to your blog on my site.”
Likewise. Anything for a fellow Phillies fan.
I grew up in Lancaster. The Eagles are the only Philadelphia team I can’t stand. . . The Cowboys won me over when I was young with their cool helmets.
The Phillies won tonight in the 10th inning-Burrell! Howard struck out, they might bench him again.
I’ll have to forgive you for going to the dark side! Dallas! Dallas! You couldn’t find a team that’s not in the NFC East?
[…] From the Democrat perspective, the 2008 Presidential Election seemed strong proof for the theories of Leibniz — early on the 2008 political climate really did seem the “best of all possible worlds.” The Republican brand was shot, the war was unpopular, the economy was tanking, and George Bush was an enormous millstone for Republicans. Moreover, as one commentator observed, the only disagreement among Dems was which primary candidate was super-great and which one merely great…(The Conservative Intelligencer) […]