New Russian Empire
Russian Hypermortality
There’s been a lot of talk lately about the resurgence of Russia as a global power. Some have even raised the spectre of a new Cold War. I haven’t given such talk much credence. If you look at Russia’s “resurgence”, it’s on the shakiest foundations imaginable. For one thing, it’s based almost entirely on a single commodity, oil. More often than not, petrodollars are more of a curse than a blessing, spreading corruption and preventing the country from diversifying its industrial base.
More salient, however, is Russia’s demographic crisis. Moving beyond the short-term, Russia’s military and economic foundations are going to be knee-capped by demographic reality. With a dying, alcoholic population, the pool of potential workers and soldiers is going to keep on shrinking. The situation is so bleak, demographers have coined a new word to describe Russia’s population statistics — hypermortality. The death rate is already equivalent to wartime conditions:
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“Compared to the majority of countries that have similar levels of economic development, mortality in Russia is 3-5 times higher for men and twice as high for women.”
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“What this means, the report says, is that the size of the working-age population ‘will fall by up to 1 million people annually already by 2020-25.’”
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“Without factoring the impact of AIDS, the number of males age 15-24 could decline by nearly half over the next 20 years.”
I must admit, because of my loyalty to the people of Ukraine, I have often read the signs of Russian decline with a certain amount of satisfaction. In truth, for centuries the Russians have spread constant misery to the countries surrounding them. However, if Russia has inflicted misery, Russians have certainly experienced their own share of it. Tsarism, Communism, invasion, corruption, alcoholism, a sycophantic Orthodox hierarchy, domestic abuse, and a host of other ills have brutalized the Russian people. A million deaths is a statistic, but each individual comprising that million is a tragedy.
As the article says, there is little hope that things will improve. Only the grace of God can pull them out of the spiral they’re now in. We need to be praying for the people of Russia. . .
HT: Instapundit Graphic thanks to Wiki.
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One thing you didn’t touch on is the number of Russians emigrating from Russia. That accounts for a large portion of their population decline.
Frank-
That’s a good point. The graphic includes data on emigration, but it should have been included in the post as well. If Europe had open borders, most of the able bodies in Russia would be flooding out the door. As it is, they trickle out as fast as they can. . .
on the which note, a friend of mine has recently continued his Russia–student visa–California Christian college–law school–DC law school–NY job journey by becoming a citizen. He was famous at my undergrad school for being moved to tears by the MiG-destroying scene in Top Gun. He got over it, I think. Mostly. Just graduated with an LLM from Georgetown.
What a country!
I know this is going to sound really stupid, but what is the meaning of the term “death rate” in this context? The death rate simpliciter is always exactly 100% — relative to what is the “rate” spoken of here?
I believe “rate” refers to the change over time of the number of deaths/year, which is significant when compared over time with number of births/year, as well as other population-changing events. It is also useful in comparing the incidence of various causes of death.
the number one cause of death is living
Thanks, that helps. I’ve always wondered about that, but this is the first time I’ve remembered to ask.
actually, the number of deaths per human not currently living on earth is fractionally over 100%.
See, against the number of those who left earth other than by death (Enoch, Elijah, post-Resurrection Jesus) you have to add those who were resurrected, who (with the exception of Jesus) all died again.
So you have several hundred (don’t forget the mass resurrections when Christ died) people who upset the ratio: the number of deaths per person is slightly higher than 1, on aggregate.
Were you, or are you now, in Ukraine? I love that place! My parents in law are missionaries in Simferopol (which is about an hour and a half, if memory serves, away from Yalta) in Crimea, working with the Tatars.
Would be interested in where you were located. Feel free to email me if you get a chance.
(no, I’m not a stalker
- I’m a Thinkling, friend of Jared’s)
Spasiba! (spelled wrong, I’m sure. One of the only words I learned while over there for a few weeks last Christmas)
It’s 100% to any level of precision worth talking about. I actually thought of Enoch and Elijah when I wrote that, but forgot about those who came out of the graves. But I figured that even rounding to something like five decimals, you’d still get 100%, so I went with it.
Exactly so! But it is always kinda funny to remember the gap between “we all owe a death” and the reality we experience. The one birth, one death thing is less constant than we are confused into believing.