Campaign 2008

Pennsylvania Primary Blogging

By J. Wesley ⋅ April 21, 2008 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

Give us your Pennsylvania Primary predictions in the comments section!

Campaigning News:

Obama is spending the day campaining in the west Pennsylvania Bitterlands, hoping to shave a bit off of Hillary’s marginsin the post-voting delegate allocation. Gone is his sunny, above-the-fray demeanor; his attacks on Hillary in recent days have gotten pretty pointed, comparing her often to that evil-doer, President Bush. Obama staffers are managing expectations, telling reporters that he’ll likely lose the primary.

Hillary is barnstorming the cities today, hitting Philly, Scranton, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg. Her people are refusing to quantify how big a win she needs to stay viable.

Advertising and Polling:

The RCP polling average for Pennsylvania puts Hillary up by 5.9 points over Obama. Polling from the last two days shows a slight move in her direction. We’ve seen late-deciders break her way in several other states she’s won recently, so this is to be expected. But with only 5% undecided at this point, she doesn’t have much room for growth.

Still though, with Obama outspending her in PA $8.1 to $3.2 million, the fact that she’s expanding her lead at all is significant. Some commentators credit Bittergate for blunting Obama’s progress in the state.

Side note: Another reason to vote against Obama — Michael Moore just endorsed him, terming Hillary “disgusting.” There’s irony in an unbathed, slovenly 300-pound man calling someone else disgusting, non?

With white women a lock for Hillary and minority voters favoring Obama, white males seem to be the key swing vote. This has led to another round of Obama-like denunciations of white males by the Left. Today’s example was Nora Ephron, who announced:

“This is an election about whether the people of Pennsylvania hate blacks more than they hate women. And when I say people, I don’t mean people, I mean white men.”

Does anyone remember back a month ago when people like Ephron were calling Obama a post-racial candidate? Now race is all they seem to talk about. . .

Election Predictions:

Joe- 56-44 Hillary, thanks to Operation Chaos.

Me: I’m giving Hillary 8 points in this one. 54-46, with only a ten delegate advantage.

Oatney: Hillary by 10-15 points.

El Jefe Maximo: Hillary by 9 points.

World and Global Politics: Hillary by less than 5.

Quin Hillyer, AmSpec: Quin is quite vague in his prediction — Hillary by 11.8-12.3%.