Campaign 2008

Indiana and North Carolina Primary Thread

By J. Wesley ⋅ May 6, 2008 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

5:37
Exit polling is showing Hillary down by as much as 15 points in North Carolina. Normally I would cut that number in half — the exit polls have inflated Obama’s vote percentage in nearly every primary so far. According to Drudge, however, it looks like the Clinton campaign’s internal numbers are pretty bad as well. They’re talking about a 15 point loss as well. On a brighter note, the returns from Indiana show Hillary safely in the lead.

8:45
They’ve already called North Carolina for Obama and Indiana for Hillary. The New York Times is liveblogging, and has the preliminary spin from the Obama camp. Obama staffers are claiming they won white voters under the age of 65 in North Carolina, and only trailed Clinton among Indiana Reagan Democrats by ten points. Several outlets are publishing highlights of the primary exit polling. One key element is that 50% of voters said that the Wright controversy was important to their vote. Hillary did very well among this group, yet it wasn’t enough to win big in Indiana or win at all in North Carolina. This seems to support what many have argued about Obama’s Wright problem — it hasn’t been enough to sink him, but it’s been enough of a headwind to keep him from putting Hillary out of the running.

For real-time updates on the election returns, here’s the Indiana Secretary of State results page.

9:44
It’s starting to look bad for Clinton. If the current numbers hold, then today isn’t a wash. With 52% reporting, Obama is winning NC by 16 points. Meanwhile, with 74% reporting in Indiana, Hillary is only up by 4. That’s way to narrow to support her ‘Obama can’t win the big swing states’ argument. Looking at the bleak numbers from NC, it seems to me that Clinton’s people did an awful job managing expectations this week. There was a lot of talk of her ‘closing’ on his lead, which only magnifies today’s loss. Obviously these numbers can tighten up as the other half of NC reports its results. Hillary had certainly better hope so.

11:55
Wow, things have actually gotten worse for Hillary. With 92% tallied in Indiana, she’s up by only 2%. What must be freaking her out is that Gary and the rest of Lake County, with their proximity to Chicago and large minority population, had posted no results as of 11:00. A good percentage of the remaining votes will be coming in from an ostensible Obama stronghold. She really could lose Indiana outright.

Drudge is reporting that Hillary will be huddling with superdelegates tomorrow to evaluate whether or not to continue. If Hillary really is a liquid-metal terminator, Indiana may just be the equivalent of a truckload of liquid nitrogen.