Hillary Clinton

Hillary stays in + Reax to yesterday’s primaries

By J. Wesley ⋅ May 7, 2008 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

Hillary says she’s staying in “until there is a nominee,” though it isn’t entirely clear if she means until the actual roll call at the DNC convention or until it’s clear that sufficient superdelegates are united behind Obama (or perhaps until Hades freezes over.)

The post-primary analysis of Indiana and North Carolina is absolutely disastrous for the Clinton campaign. A representative headline reads “STICK A FORK IN HER - SHE’S DONE.” Everyone from the New York Post to Politico are writing her epitaph.

Hillary is not entirely without hope at this point. Her national numbers are still strong — her RCP national average is only 0.1% behind Obama, though this could change in post-NC polling. The upcoming primaries in KY and WV should be friendly for her.

Such bright spots are greatly outweighed by the negatives. The Oregon primary will end badly for her. George McGovern, a joke to the rest of the country but respected by Liberals, has switched his support to Obama. Worst of all, Hillary is out of money. Having previously loaned her campaign $5 million, Hillary gave herself an additional $6.4 million last month. Even with her knack for futures trading, she can’t keep this up indefinitely.

Perhaps her only remaining hope (aside from an unexpected Rezko or Wright revelation knocking out Obama) is the “nuclear option.” This entails ramming the Florida and Michigan delegations through the Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31. If seated, these would give her a small delegate lead over Obama. Given her Tuesday losses, it’s doubtful she could pull it off at this point, but the nuclear option remains on the table.