H/T: Atlantic Blog

“As somebody said, ‘The Clintons were the media’s old darlings. The reason for the negative media attention is that she is now standing in the way of the media’s new darling.’”

There’s obviously some truth to this. The MSM Obama-love is pretty slobbery at times. But I think there’s a deeper truth if we flip it around a bit. The Clintons were OLD MEDIA darlings. Clinton mesmerized America with his magical BS during a time when both the Internet and Republican alternative media were in their infancy. The Clinton song and dance was a simple one — stonewall tough questions and then lie, lie, lie. It worked more often than not. The Clinton magic doesn’t work any more because we’re in a New Media era.

Nowadays, someone is always waiting online to fact-check your spin. It’s amazing that a “co-presidency” that was crippled by a New Media source — the Drudge Report — completely failed to reckon on the power of New Media. As an example, consider the whole “Hillary vs. the Serbian Snipers” fiasco. Or think back to Bill Clinton’s ham-fisted use of the race card during the primaries. The Clintons really were clueless about how such things would play out in a new era. On the flip side, they also failed to reckon on the positive side of New Media — while Obama was wooing the Nutroots and raking in millions online, Hillary seemed to be campaigning circa 1992.

Chris Muir expresses the angst of many a Republican voter by channelling Princess Bride:

Day by Day Cartoon by Chris Muir via kwout

The next frame mentions Barr’s candidacy, shrewdly borrowing a line from Inigo Montoya, who of course defines “quixotic” to a generation who got all those jokes (the Baylor Fencing Club eventually made me watch this movie halfway through grad school). I still don’t see the percentage in voting for Barr, or any other unwinnable candidate; but I have to admit that I’d welcome a candidacy to “push” the Republicans in a conservative direction, if I thought it would succeed.

Ah, well. Barring a visit from the Dread Pirate Roberts, we’ll all have to choose the lesser of two (or three?) weevils in November.

Ironically, McCain may be the best hope Republican have of avoiding a complete slaughter. If so, it’s a small recompense for the sheer number of times he’s scored New York Times brownie points at their expense.

It’s extraordinary that in a year as bleak as this, McCain is running even with Obama. If Romney or Huckabee were in his place, I don’t think the election would even be close.

Bob Novak writes today that Michelle Obama is implacably set against Hillary for VP. He also claims that Ohio Gov. Strickland is gaining support among Dems as a VP choice.

Larry Sabato’s guest writer declares for VA Sen. Jim Webb.

Obama refuses to discuss the possibility of a HillBama “dream ticket”, calling it “premature.”

Chris Cillizza over at WaPo lists the Dem Top 5 from most to least likely: KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius; OH Gov. Ted Strickland; Hillary Clinton; VA Gov. Tim Kaine; and Sen. Sam Nunn.

Over at BetUS.com, the smart money seems to be on Hillary, Sebelius, Bill Richardson, and Jim Webb, in that order.

McCain’s Vice-Presidential Pick:

The big news this week was 36 year old LA Gov. Bobby Jindal. Barely out of short-pants, politically speaking, he’s nevertheless wildly popular among conservatives and respected by both sides of the aisle. Bill Kristol is the biggest name to boost Jindal for VP, devoting a NYT column to the cause.

Chris Cillizza on the Republican Top 5 from most to least likely: MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty; SD Sen. John Thune; former OMB Dir. Rob Portman; FL Gov. Charlie Crist (say it ain’t so!); Mitt Romney.

NRO’s Jim Geraghty also brought RI Gov. Don Carcieri into the mix. According to Geraghty, Carcieri’s a “Two term governor, pro-life Catholic, tough on illegal immigration and corruption in his home state.” I saw at least two other major conservatives float his name this week.

McCain himself gave some insight into his thought process on VP selection in an interview: “McCain answered that history shows that people generally vote for the person at the top of the ticket and the criteria should be someone who is best qualified by sharing similar principals and values.” That’s a strike against Romney. . .

. . .On the other hand, BetUS.com has Romney on top, followed by Tim Pawlenty, Lindsay Graham (No!), and a tie between Chris Cox and Charlie Crist.

Stuart Rothenberg does his best to sabotage the McCain campaign, calling Joe Lieberman the “perfect candidate” for VP. Yeah, if by perfect you mean “guaranteed to cause a Republican Party rebellion/meltdown and elect Obama.” Otherwise, not so perfect.

K-Lo declares for Mitt Romney. Wow, no one saw that one coming. /snark

8:45
They’ve already called North Carolina for Obama and Indiana for Hillary. The New York Times is liveblogging, and has the preliminary spin from the Obama camp. Obama staffers are claiming they won white voters under the age of 65 in North Carolina, and only trailed Clinton among Indiana Reagan Democrats by ten points. Several outlets are publishing highlights of the primary exit polling. One key element is that 50% of voters said that the Wright controversy was important to their vote. Hillary did very well among this group, yet it wasn’t enough to win big in Indiana or win at all in North Carolina. This seems to support what many have argued about Obama’s Wright problem — it hasn’t been enough to sink him, but it’s been enough of a headwind to keep him from putting Hillary out of the running.

For real-time updates on the election returns, here’s the Indiana Secretary of State results page.

9:44
It’s starting to look bad for Clinton. If the current numbers hold, then today isn’t a wash. With 52% reporting, Obama is winning NC by 16 points. Meanwhile, with 74% reporting in Indiana, Hillary is only up by 4. That’s way to narrow to support her ‘Obama can’t win the big swing states’ argument. Looking at the bleak numbers from NC, it seems to me that Clinton’s people did an awful job managing expectations this week. There was a lot of talk of her ‘closing’ on his lead, which only magnifies today’s loss. Obviously these numbers can tighten up as the other half of NC reports its results. Hillary had certainly better hope so.

11:55
Wow, things have actually gotten worse for Hillary. With 92% tallied in Indiana, she’s up by only 2%. What must be freaking her out is that Gary and the rest of Lake County, with their proximity to Chicago and large minority population, had posted no results as of 11:00. A good percentage of the remaining votes will be coming in from an ostensible Obama stronghold. She really could lose Indiana outright.

Drudge is reporting that Hillary will be huddling with superdelegates tomorrow to evaluate whether or not to continue. If Hillary really is a liquid-metal terminator, Indiana may just be the equivalent of a truckload of liquid nitrogen.

Several grueling months later, things look a lot less Panglossian. In fact, Democrats may have stumbled into the worst of all possible worlds. Not only did the Republicans inadvertently nominate their most electable candidate, but the Democratic primary has devolved into a bellum omnium contra omnes of race and gender.

The past few months raised the negatives of both candidates and bitterly divided the party. However, Dems may have committed an even more fatal error — nominating the less electable candidate but not realizing their mistake until it was too late to reverse it. Unless Hillary pulls off a miracle, she’s going to lose the popular vote. She’s already certain to lose the pledged delegate count. If party bigwigs then “steal” the nomination from Obama, the bonfire of identity politics we’ve seen thus far will flare into a towering disco inferno. Burn, Dhimmis, Burn.

Looking at recent polling and history, Obama really is going to have problems in the general election. Part of his appeal was his electability — he had low negatives and could “paint the map purple.” Instead, we’re finding that Hillary has more Swing State appeal. Obama’s 25-point lead in NC has dropped to single digits largely due to racial polarization. Scratch off the only state in the South where he seemed competitive (except perhaps Virginia.) Worse, he can’t close the deal with working-class whites in PA, OH, IN or FL — the most swingin’ of the Swing States.

Recent polling looks bad for Obama. Hillary does much better against McCain both nationally and in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Obviously, this has been a bad week, what with Rev. Wright melting down on national television. But Obama had trouble with these states well beforehand. He hasn’t won a big-state primary since Feb 19th, and that was in Wisconsin.

If I were a superdelegate, these would be major red flags for me.

HT: Ace of Spades for the pic!

With about 60% of Pennsylvania reporting, Hillary is up about 7.4%. However, that’s with 97% of Obama-lovin’ Philly already reporting.

About 40% of the primary electorate lives in Philadelphia or its suburbs. Obama killed her 2-1 in Philly, as expected. The good news is that Hillary is holding her own pretty well in the suburban belt around the city. Meanwhile, Hillary is up in PittsburgH (thanks pentamom!) by 10% and getting creamed in Harrisburg.

7.4% at this stage leaves open the possibility of a 10%+ win, I should think. And the way the expectations game played out, she needs it.

More beneath the fold!
(more…)

Citizens Against Government Waste is Jiminy Cricket to Republican politicians’ Pinocchio. It’s that nagging voice of conscience that says, “Try and remember your principles!”

Sadly, as Republicans in Congress went on their spending binge in the early 2000s, CAGW was just about as effective as Jiminy in getting Republican pols to listen. In the end, Congressional Republicans did indeed turn into asses and the Donkey Party is running things in Congress.

Okay, I’ve tortured that analogy enough. Looking over the CAGW approval ratings for the 109th Congress, the difference between Obama and McCain is pretty stark.

Barack Obama received a 30% approval rating from the organization, earning him an “unfriendly” designation.

John McCain voted right 95% of the time and earned the “Taxpayer Hero” designation. He was also the highest-rated individual in the entire Senate.

While “suicide voter” conservatives can continue to say there’s no difference between the candidates, it just ain’t so.

HT: Army of Epiphenomenon for the graphic!

And if government spending doesn’t kill the economy, Eco-fanatics just might. . .

Campaigning News:

Obama is spending the day campaining in the west Pennsylvania Bitterlands, hoping to shave a bit off of Hillary’s marginsin the post-voting delegate allocation. Gone is his sunny, above-the-fray demeanor; his attacks on Hillary in recent days have gotten pretty pointed, comparing her often to that evil-doer, President Bush. Obama staffers are managing expectations, telling reporters that he’ll likely lose the primary.

Hillary is barnstorming the cities today, hitting Philly, Scranton, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg. Her people are refusing to quantify how big a win she needs to stay viable.

Advertising and Polling:

The RCP polling average for Pennsylvania puts Hillary up by 5.9 points over Obama. Polling from the last two days shows a slight move in her direction. We’ve seen late-deciders break her way in several other states she’s won recently, so this is to be expected. But with only 5% undecided at this point, she doesn’t have much room for growth.

Still though, with Obama outspending her in PA $8.1 to $3.2 million, the fact that she’s expanding her lead at all is significant. Some commentators credit Bittergate for blunting Obama’s progress in the state.

Side note: Another reason to vote against Obama — Michael Moore just endorsed him, terming Hillary “disgusting.” There’s irony in an unbathed, slovenly 300-pound man calling someone else disgusting, non?

With white women a lock for Hillary and minority voters favoring Obama, white males seem to be the key swing vote. This has led to another round of Obama-like denunciations of white males by the Left. Today’s example was Nora Ephron, who announced:

“This is an election about whether the people of Pennsylvania hate blacks more than they hate women. And when I say people, I don’t mean people, I mean white men.”

Does anyone remember back a month ago when people like Ephron were calling Obama a post-racial candidate? Now race is all they seem to talk about. . .

Election Predictions:

Joe- 56-44 Hillary, thanks to Operation Chaos.

Me: I’m giving Hillary 8 points in this one. 54-46, with only a ten delegate advantage.

Oatney: Hillary by 10-15 points.

El Jefe Maximo: Hillary by 9 points.

World and Global Politics: Hillary by less than 5.

Quin Hillyer, AmSpec: Quin is quite vague in his prediction — Hillary by 11.8-12.3%.