Hillary Clinton
A (slightly premature) Clinton post-mortem
Time Magazine has a very good analysis of Where Clinton Went Wrong. Most of it matches the CW of recent weeks, but they summarize Clinton’s missteps in five easy bites:
1. She misjudged the mood - Running on experience in a change election.
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2. She didn’t master the rules - her people, bizarrely, didn’t reckon much on proportional representation.
3. She underestimated the caucus states - Or I would say, she underestimated Obama. Assuming she could win through big primaries, she never put together the campaign apparatus to win small caucus states. Obama’s winning margin was cobbled together by places like Kansas.
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4. She relied on old money - While doing well among traditional Democratic donors such as Hollywood, trial lawyers, aging Mafiosi, Buddhist monasteries and Chinese sleeper agents, she lost big to Obama in the internet money race.
5. She never counted on a long haul - Much like Napoleon, she didn’t reckon on a long campaign. Expecting a quick knock-out, she made few preparations for the post-Super Tuesday period. We all know how that ended. Now, by the time her ragtag campaign finishes its retreat to Chappaqua, only a handful of supporters and none of her dignity will remain.
These macro points are all perfectly sound. I think if I had to point to a single moment where things started to go bad, it would be the October 31st Democratic debate. Her fumbling of the drivers licenses for illegals question was the first time I saw a chink in her armor. From that point forward, she seems to be a bit off-balance and Obama seemed emboldened to push harder.
If this truly is the end, I have mixed feelings. It warms the cockles of my heart to see the Clintons get their comeuppance. At the same time, I think Hillary would have been a much better president than Obama. A Clinton-McCain race would have assured America of a seasoned grown-up for president. With Obama, not so much. Feh.
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“At the same time, I think Hillary would have been a much better president than Obama. A Clinton-McCain race would have assured America of a seasoned grown-up for president.”
Exactly. Considering my disdain for the previous President Clinton and the current Clinton candidate’s involvement during those years, I was shocked to hear myself say that I thought she would make a decent Democratic president (of the field of Dem candidates.) And it is just the point you made–she’s got more maturity and pragmatism than Obama, and while her ideologies would lead to some horrible policies, I believe she would know how to compromise and would tend towards. . . dare I say it? . . . moderation. (And of great importance during this election, I don’t think she would unthinkingly yank our military out of Iraq and Afghanistan–which Obama has said he would do–and which I believe would be devastating to our country as well as Iraq and stabilization in that part of the world.)
Hillary also does not have cool songs like Obama does.
I, too, find it hard not to wish Clinton well against Obama, though I can scarcely conceal my joy at any political ill wind for either of them.
May McCain prove better than we reasonably fear, and Obama no worse!
Peace,
PGE
Miss and pgepps-
That’s been one of the most pronounced features of the campaign — the lack of creativity from the Clinton grassroots. Both Obama and McCain people have come up with some great independently-produced stuff, but Hillary supporters produced almost nothing. I remember seeing a thread on one of the big Hillary blogs lamenting this and wondering how they would attack McCain after they won the primary, since all of their good anti-Obama stuff was borrowed from conservatives. . .
TG-
“Considering my disdain for the previous President Clinton and the current Clinton candidate’s involvement during those years, I was shocked to hear myself say that I thought she would make a decent Democratic president”
Hillary’s campaign has reminded me a bit of George HW Bush when he ran as Reagan’s heir. Both Bush and Hillary were more liberal than the presidents they worked with, but they seemed committed to -mostly- staying in the path set out for them by Reagan or Clinton.
I think conservatives really went of the deep-end with the Bill Clinton presidency. There was plenty to disagree with, but he was probably the most moderate Democrat any of us is likely to see elected for a very long time. Compared to Kerry, Silky Pony, Howard Dean, or Barack Obama, he was pretty reasonable.
OK, let’s not get TOO fuzzy and nostalgic about the Clintons, now. They might yet give us a Second Gore.
PG-
Oh, I know. But I’m still appalled by the insanity of conservatives during that period. And ask yourself this — could you imagine a Dem president today that would sign NAFTA, GATT, the 1996 Welfare Reform Bill, and keep government growth to the levels which Clinton did? I think the words “the era of Big Government is over” would be physically impossible for most of them to utter.
yeah, but I was one of those fairly insane conservatives, had to go into “politics detox” from about ‘93 to ‘98 just to recover my equilibrium, y’know?
Certainly, if we must have a hard-left zealot in the White House, it’s probably better to have one who’s long since sold out to a “centrist” power base.
NAFTA and GATT were really not especially good bills, especially NAFTA. Your question rebounds on you: Can you imagine an accurately named “free trade agreement” that ANY Democratic President could sign?
pgepps-
See, I don’t think Bill is a hard-Left zealot. I think Bill’s only real ideology is Billism.
I agree that NAFTA, GATT and the WTO were imperfect, but are you seriously going to contend that there hasn’t been a massive shift in Dem opinion on free trade? Look what they’re doing with Colombia.
And yeah, I lost my head a bit then too. Age and experience have given me some perspective.