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Abortion

Republicans and Evangelicals Have Babies, Democrats and Seculars Buy Small Dogs

By J. Wesley Bush ⋅ April 2, 2008 ⋅ Email This Post Email This Post ⋅ Print This Post Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

Demographics may not be destiny, but they’re the next best thing. Since about 75-80% of children embrace the beliefs of their parents in adulthood, it’s reasonable to expect that those political and religious groups in America with the largest birth rates will benefit in the future. And since religious and party affiliation most strongly correlate to one’s political beliefs, this has implications for the liberal-conservative divide and issues such as the abortion debate.

Party Affiliation and Birth Rates

Of the ten states with the highest fertility in the U.S., eight of them voted for Bush in 2000. Of the bottom ten states in fertility, eight went for Gore. More importantly, of the states Bush won, his margin of victory was generally much higher in high-birth rate states than lower ones. As for Gore’s states — the lower the birth rates the higher the margin of victory. In states where Bush won, women have an average fertility of 2.11 children. In Gore states, it is 1.89, well below replacement levels and on par with the EU.

The “Roe Effect” also has an impact. Abortions are not performed uniformly across America — those ethnic groups which vote the most heavily Democratic have a much higher abortion rate than those voting Republican.

Marriage rates are another factor. With the vast majority of U.S. births taking place within wedlock, the GOP marriage advantage translates to more babies raised by Republicans. According to 2004 exit polls, married voters went Republican 57%-42%, while Kerry won single voters by 58%-40%.

Religious Affiliation and Birth Rates

Religious affiliation correlates strongly with political and party affiliation. Evangelical voters typically vote 78-80% Republican. Secular voters overwhelmingly, though of course not universally, lean Democrat.

The fecundist aspects of Evangelical theology play strongly into high Evangelical birth rates. “Quiver full” theology is popular in some sections, while nearly all conservative Protestant churches emphasize the belief that “children are a blessing from God.” This is born out in the attitudes of Evangelicals (and other conservative religious affiliations) toward children. As Phillip Longman wrote in the WP: “Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction. In the United States, fully 47 percent of people who attend church weekly say that their ideal family size is three or more children. By contrast, only 27 percent of those who seldom attend church want that many kids.”

Derran Sherkat, writing in the (firewalled) Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion notes that birth rates are a key factor in the decline of liberal mainline Christianity and the rise of Evangelicalism.

Evangelicals are only one of a host of examples of religion equating to births and secularism to demographic decline. The contrast between secular Europe and the birth rates of Muslim immigrants is a classic case. The slow death of the strongly-secular Russian nation and the rise of its Muslim population is another. The U.S. is the only industrialized nation which is replacing itself, and one of the key factors cited is conservative religion.

 Further reading on the Roe Effect:

Backyard Conservative / Custos Fidei / Moore Thoughts / Dad Manly / Posse Incitatus

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Discussion

12 comments for “Republicans and Evangelicals Have Babies, Democrats and Seculars Buy Small Dogs”

  1. You seem to assume that when conservative evangelicals have more children, those children will also grow up to be conservative and evangelical. Neither is necessarily true. Children do not necessarily inherit the ideologies or religion of their parents, so “more babies raised by Republicans” does not mean more Republican voters in 18 years. Furthermore some people (Rev. Jim Wallis for one) say that some evangelicals may or should shift Left. The focus of evangelical politics could shift away from “fear the gays” to social justice.

    Posted by Adrian | April 2, 2008, 9:50 pm

  2. Actually, I assumed nothing. The post mentions that about 75-80% of children grow up to embrace the religious and party affiliations of their parents.

    Which is why Italian Americans are still overwhelmingly Catholic after 100 years of assimilation in a majority-Protestant country. And why small, often insular religious groups can survive in the marketplace of ideas.

    Shifts can and do occur, but with glacial slowness. African-Americans, for instance, voted strongly Republican for decades, and then began a transition to Democrats from the 1920s-1950s. Party affiliation then stabilized, and their children tend to follow the voting patterns of their parents very closely.

    Southerners are another example — children followed the voting patterns of their parents very closely, then transitioned from the 1950s-1990s, and are now strongly Republican. Now their children tend strongly to vote Republican.

    I’ll certainly allow that many young people vote more liberally than their parents. The tendency is for this to swing back to their parents’ value system in their 20s. The gap in church attendance by 18-25 year olds is an example. It happens almost every generation.

    It’s good to see you, btw. :)

    Posted by Intelligencer | April 2, 2008, 11:06 pm

  3. Children grow up within families and social networks (churches, organizations, etc.) which continue into adulthood. Such forces shape the worldview of the child.

    The decision to leave these social networks or reject the beliefs of the family usually has to be consciously made and is often traumatic.

    “Furthermore some people (Rev. Jim Wallis for one) say that some evangelicals may or should shift Left. The focus of evangelical politics could shift away from “fear the gays” to social justice.”

    The Left has been making such predictions for about a quarter century. How’s that working out for them?

    Posted by Intelligencer | April 2, 2008, 11:23 pm

  4. When it comes to pumping out babies in America, Hispanics are the 800lb gorilla–and they vote mostly Democrat. Unless Republicans manage to make serious inroads among Hispanics (which will be difficult) or take measures to stem the flow of immigrants both legal and illegal (which few seem serious about doing), it seems the country in 20 years will belong to the Dems.

    Posted by Marc | April 3, 2008, 6:59 pm

  5. Missed that 2nd sentence, sorry. But the rest of your comment makes the point I was trying to make by bringing up Rev. Wallis - there can be really big shifts, and sometimes they occur very rapidly, like how LBJ “lost the south”.

    Furthermore continuity in political party does not mean continuity in politics - as the politics of different generations evolve, the political parties follow them (or maybe its the other way around). So while New England has been Democrat for a while, what “Democrat” means has changed, become more socially liberal, etc. I see this “more babies” argument used a lot by conservatives who argue that in 20 years they will run the country. My argument is, not necessarily, for all these reasons (big swings, conservatism changes, etc.).

    “The Left has been making such predictions for about a quarter century. How’s that working out for them?”

    Duno, haven’t been around for a quarter of a century yet. ô¿ô

    Posted by Adrian | April 3, 2008, 7:26 pm

  6. “like how LBJ “lost the south”.”

    This actually supports my thesis. The South grew annoyed with the Democrats from the 1940s onward, and started voting Republican in presidential races in the 1950s. But it didn’t really trickle down to local and state races until the 80s and 90s. The Florida Senate, for example, went Republican for the first time in 150 years in 1992, if memory serves. . .

    “My argument is, not necessarily, for all these reasons (big swings, conservatism changes, etc.).”

    I totally agree. Causation is a slippery beast. Hopefully we’ll both live long, healthy lives and see how it pans out. :)

    I’m really glad to have you on the site, btw.

    Posted by Intelligencer | April 3, 2008, 7:30 pm

  7. Marc-

    The Latino birth rate is definitely a factor as well. And I agree, Republicans need to be doing a lot of outreach to the Latino community. For this election cycle, at least, we’ve nominated the candidate best likely to win over Latino voters. The black-Latino tension between the Hillary and Obama campaigns won’t hurt either. . .

    Posted by Intelligencer | April 3, 2008, 7:58 pm

  8. Intelligencer,

    There’s a reason Latinos vote Democrat: Democrats have no compunctions about redistributing the nation’s wealth to underachieving minorities, which include Latinos. What can Republicans offer Latinos to get them to switch parties?

    Posted by Marc | April 3, 2008, 8:06 pm

  9. Marc-

    Thanks so much for the comment. You’ve actually inspired me to do a three part series on Latinos and the GOP. I’m putting up Part I today. . .

    Posted by Intelligencer | April 4, 2008, 1:33 pm

  10. [...] is Part II of an earlier post.  Here is some more data on the birth rates of conservatives versus liberals, Evangelicals [...]

    Posted by Conservative and Liberal Birth Rates in Red and Blue States | conservativeintelligencer.com | April 12, 2008, 5:14 am

  11. [...] article on religion and fecundity: Faith equals Fertility. The author, Anthony Gottlieb, confirms what I’ve been saying for ages — that religion and childbearing are strongly correlated. While I’ve tended to focus on [...]

    Posted by jwesleybush.com | More Evidence — Evangelicals have babies, seculars buy small dogs | March 20, 2009, 4:44 pm

  12. [...] article on religion and fecundity: Faith equals Fertility. The author, Anthony Gottlieb, confirms what I’ve been saying for ages — that religion and childbearing are strongly correlated. While I’ve tended to focus on [...]

    Posted by More Evidence — Evangelicals have babies, seculars buy small dogs | conservativeintelligencer.com | March 20, 2009, 5:35 pm

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